ASR - recent articles
https://asr.copernicus.org/articles/
Recent articles of the journal Advances in Science and ResearchProbabilistic end-to-end irradiance forecasting through pre-trained deep learning models using all-sky-images
https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-20-129-2024
<b>Probabilistic end-to-end irradiance forecasting through pre-trained deep learning models using all-sky-images</b><br>
Samer Chaaraoui, Sebastian Houben, and Stefanie Meilinger<br>
Adv. Sci. Res., 20, 129–158, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-20-129-2024, 2024<br>
This method generates probabilistic solar power forecasts of up to 30 min using artificial intelligence and fish eye images of the sky. We investigated the impact of parameters describing the variability of the solar power on the forecast performance and divided the solar power to its direct and diffuse components. The method achieves overall good performance, while variability parameters and dividing the solar power don't show any performance gain. However, training time can be decreased.
2024-01-02T11:05:58+01:00Intercomparing the quality of recent reanalyses for offshore wind farm planning in Germany's exclusive economic zone of the North Sea
https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-20-109-2023
<b>Intercomparing the quality of recent reanalyses for offshore wind farm planning in Germany's exclusive economic zone of the North Sea</b><br>
Thomas Spangehl, Michael Borsche, Deborah Niermann, Frank Kaspar, Semjon Schimanke, Susanne Brienen, Thomas Möller, and Maren Brast<br>
Adv. Sci. Res., 20, 109–128, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-20-109-2023, 2023<br>
The quality of the global reanalysis ERA5, the regional reanalysis COSMO-REA6 and a successor version (R6G2), the new Copernicus European Regional Re-Analysis (CERRA) and a regional downscaling simulation with COSMO-CLM (HoKliSim-De) is assessed for offshore wind farm planning in the German Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) of the North Sea. The quality is assessed using in-situ wind measurements at the research platform FINO1 and satellite-based data of the near-surface wind speed as reference.
2023-11-17T11:05:58+01:00Internal boundary layer characteristics at the southern Bulgarian Black Sea coast
https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-20-97-2023
<b>Internal boundary layer characteristics at the southern Bulgarian Black Sea coast</b><br>
Damyan Barantiev and Ekaterina Batchvarova<br>
Adv. Sci. Res., 20, 97–107, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-20-97-2023, 2023<br>
The importance of the ABL studies is essential because we live and work in it. The presented study is based on long-term acoustic soundings data for the coastal atmosphere. Such data is of great importance for the study and the theoretical description of the atmospheric processes in similar complex terrain regions and can be used for validation of different NWP and prognostic air pollution models. Such data is critically needed for the development of improved ABL parametrization schemes.
2023-09-28T11:05:58+02:00Recent improvements in the E-OBS gridded data set for daily mean wind speed over Europe in the period 1980–2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-20-91-2023
<b>Recent improvements in the E-OBS gridded data set for daily mean wind speed over Europe in the period 1980–2021</b><br>
Jouke H. S. de Baar, Linh Nhat Luu, Gerard van der Schrier, Else J. M. van den Besselaar, and Irene Garcia-Marti<br>
Adv. Sci. Res., 20, 91–95, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-20-91-2023, 2023<br>
In this work, we present the most recent updates in the E-OBS gridded data set for daily mean wind speed over Europe. The data set is provided as an ensemble of equally likely realisations. In addition, we make a preliminary study into possible causes of the observed terrestrial wind stilling effect, such as local changes in surface roughness length. As one of the results, we do observe a terrestrial wind stilling effect, however, the trend varies locally over Europe.
2023-08-23T11:05:58+02:00Preparing for the unprecedented
https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-20-85-2023
<b>Preparing for the unprecedented</b><br>
Brian Golding, Elizabeth Ebert, David Hoffmann, and Sally Potter<br>
Adv. Sci. Res., 20, 85–90, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-20-85-2023, 2023<br>
In 2021, several weather disasters occurred in which conditions surpassed recorded extremes. Comparative analysis of the warnings issued for these disasters shows that the conditions were generally forecast but that lack of preparedness and/or communication failures led to loss of life in particularly vulnerable groups.
2023-07-31T11:05:58+02:00Fog formation, smog situations and air quality in high school physics education
https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-19-159-2023
<b>Fog formation, smog situations and air quality in high school physics education</b><br>
Beáta Molnár, Tamás Weidinger, and Péter Tasnádi<br>
Adv. Sci. Res., 19, 159–165, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-19-159-2023, 2023<br>
We considered it important to complete the content knowledge of secondary school physics with those concerning atmospheric humidity, fog, and air pollution. For this aim, a three-hour teaching module was elaborated, which included the analysis of the air-polluting events together with the foggy weather. The experimental curriculum motivated the students to understand processes that take place in their environment regarding environmental protection.
2023-07-27T11:05:58+02:00Decentralized forecasting of wind energy generation with an adaptive machine learning approach to support ancillary grid services
https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-20-81-2023
<b>Decentralized forecasting of wind energy generation with an adaptive machine learning approach to support ancillary grid services</b><br>
Lukas Holicki, Manuel Dröse, Gregor Schürmann, and Marcus Letzel<br>
Adv. Sci. Res., 20, 81–84, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-20-81-2023, 2023<br>
We present a wind power forecasting procedure, that consists of a physics-based component generated at a central server, and a data-based component generated on-site the wind power plant (WPP). It provides blackout-robust data transmission to grid operators and high forecast reliability, especially in the very-short term horizon. This endeavor aims at employing WPPs for support in exceptional or critical grid situations, where short term decision making is most relevant.
2023-07-17T11:05:58+02:00Using value chain approaches to evaluate the end-to-end warning chain
https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-20-73-2023
<b>Using value chain approaches to evaluate the end-to-end warning chain</b><br>
David Hoffmann, Elizabeth E. Ebert, Carla Mooney, Brian Golding, and Sally Potter<br>
Adv. Sci. Res., 20, 73–79, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-20-73-2023, 2023<br>
The weather information value chain is a framework that describes how information is produced, communicated, and used in an end-to-end warning system for weather and hazard monitoring. A project under the WMO aims to explore value chain approaches to describe and evaluate high-impact weather events. The project developed a template for high-impact weather event case study collection, which allows scientists and practitioners to assess the effectiveness of warning value chains.
2023-07-11T11:05:58+02:00Investigation of the ENVI-met model sensitivity to different wind direction forcing data in a heterogeneous urban environment
https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-20-65-2023
<b>Investigation of the ENVI-met model sensitivity to different wind direction forcing data in a heterogeneous urban environment</b><br>
Nils Eingrüber, Wolfgang Korres, Ulrich Löhnert, and Karl Schneider<br>
Adv. Sci. Res., 20, 65–71, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-20-65-2023, 2023<br>
Sensitivity analyses for wind direction effects upon an ENVI-met microclimate model were performed for a heterogeneous urban study area. Significant temperature differences were found when forcing the model with constant N/E/S/W wind direction data. Best model performance was observed using measured wind direction forcing data. The results demonstrate that cooling effects of park areas are largely directional which is important for urban planning and design of climate change adaptation measures.
2023-07-10T11:05:58+02:00Capturing features of turbulent Ekman–Stokes boundary layers with a stochastic modeling approach
https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-20-55-2023
<b>Capturing features of turbulent Ekman–Stokes boundary layers with a stochastic modeling approach</b><br>
Marten Klein and Heiko Schmidt<br>
Adv. Sci. Res., 20, 55–64, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-20-55-2023, 2023<br>
Atmospheric boundary layers are inherently unsteady and exhibit processes on multiple scales. A stochastic one-dimensional turbulence model is applied here to periodically forced Ekman flows. These flows are hard to model due to competing laminar and turbulent response mechanisms. It is shown that the model is able to capture parametric dependencies of the near-surface turbulence. The results consolidate improvements seen in a subgrid-scale application of the model within large-eddy simulations.
2023-07-05T11:05:58+02:00Spatial regression of multi-fidelity meteorological observations using a proxy-based measurement error model
https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-20-49-2023
<b>Spatial regression of multi-fidelity meteorological observations using a proxy-based measurement error model</b><br>
Jouke H. S. de Baar, Irene Garcia-Marti, and Gerard van der Schrier<br>
Adv. Sci. Res., 20, 49–53, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-20-49-2023, 2023<br>
Combining high-fidelity official meteorological observations with low-fidelity crowd-sourced data in a single climate or weather map is challenging because of the significant bias and noise in the low-fidelity data. In this work, we present a method to treat this bias and noise in a statistical framework. In addition, we show that we can make an additional improvement in the quality of the map when we add high-resolution land use information.
2023-06-06T11:05:58+02:00Exploratory analysis of citizen observations of hourly precipitation over Scandinavia
https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-20-35-2023
<b>Exploratory analysis of citizen observations of hourly precipitation over Scandinavia</b><br>
Cristian Lussana, Emma Baietti, Line Båserud, Thomas Nils Nipen, and Ivar Ambjørn Seierstad<br>
Adv. Sci. Res., 20, 35–48, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-20-35-2023, 2023<br>
We have compared hourly precipitation totals measured by rain gauges installed and maintained by citizens against professional weather stations managed by the national weather services of Finland, Norway and Sweden. The manufacturer of the citizen rain gauges is Netatmo. Despite the heterogeneity of citizens' measurements, our results show that the two data sources are comparable with each other, though with some limitations. The results also show how to improve the accuracy of citizens' data.
2023-05-31T11:05:58+02:00Return values of temperature and snow loadings for 50, 100 and 120-year return periods to support building design standards in Ireland
https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-20-17-2023
<b>Return values of temperature and snow loadings for 50, 100 and 120-year return periods to support building design standards in Ireland</b><br>
Carla Mateus and Barry Coonan<br>
Adv. Sci. Res., 20, 17–33, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-20-17-2023, 2023<br>
This research presents new maps of return values of maximum and minimum shade air temperatures at mean sea level, lowest 10 cm soil temperature and snow loading at 100 m above mean sea level for 50, 100 and 120-year return periods. These maps will be crucial to inform the design of buildings and civil engineering works such as roof patterns or bridges.
2023-05-17T11:05:58+02:00Toward effective communication of agrometeorological services
https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-20-9-2023
<b>Toward effective communication of agrometeorological services</b><br>
Tanja Cegnar, Hendrik Boogaard, Klara Finkele, Branislava Lalic, Joanna Raymond, Saskia Lifka, David M. Schultz, and Vieri Tarchiani<br>
Adv. Sci. Res., 20, 9–16, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-20-9-2023, 2023<br>
Agrometeorological services often do not cover the last mile – not reaching, not being understood, nor being trusted by smallholder farmers living in remote areas. To help bridge this gap across the last mile, the workshop on effective communication of agrometeorological services took place during the EMS2022. This paper presents the outcomes and recommendations on how to bridge the gap between information providers and information users.
2023-05-04T11:05:58+02:00Spatiotemporal investigation of wet–cold compound events in Greece
https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-19-145-2023
<b>Spatiotemporal investigation of wet–cold compound events in Greece</b><br>
Iason Markantonis, Diamando Vlachogiannis, Athanasios Sfetsos, Ioannis Kioutsioukis, and Nadia Politi<br>
Adv. Sci. Res., 19, 145–158, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-19-145-2023, 2023<br>
This paper examines the simulataneous exceedance of daily accumulated precipitation (RR) and minimum (TN) temperature thresholds in Greece for the period 1980–2004 and for each month in the period November to April. Available data from observations and projection simulations are used to calculate the probabilities of extreme wet-cold compound events at the past. Models are validated by the observational data.
2023-04-21T11:05:58+02:00Maximizing the potential of numerical weather prediction models: lessons learned from combining high-performance computing and cloud computing
https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-20-1-2023
<b>Maximizing the potential of numerical weather prediction models: lessons learned from combining high-performance computing and cloud computing</b><br>
Paraskevi Vourlioti, Stylianos Kotsopoulos, Theano Mamouka, Apostolos Agrafiotis, Francisco Javier Nieto, Carlos Fernández Sánchez, Cecilia Grela Llerena, and Sergio García González<br>
Adv. Sci. Res., 20, 1–8, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-20-1-2023, 2023<br>
By facilitating the execution of agriculture-related models in cloud and HPC this works demonstrated new features that allow the improvement of the involved processes in terms of technology combination. The technology pillars of this work follow the paradigm of European Union's initiative, Destine Earth (DE). Lesson learned in all three components (HPC, NWP, Cloud) of the developed data driven service are described and pathways for the creation of operational services are discussed.
2023-03-20T11:05:58+01:00How to teach lightning activities to spark students' curiosity?
https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-19-137-2022
<b>How to teach lightning activities to spark students' curiosity?</b><br>
Ildikó Takátsné Lucz and Péter Tasnádi<br>
Adv. Sci. Res., 19, 137–144, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-19-137-2022, 2022<br>
Nowadays, thunderstorms and lightning strikes have also come to the forefront of public interest as they cause significant damage, injuries, and forest fires. Due to the lack of knowledge in the public consciousness, many myths have developed around them. Our research aims to determine what can be taught in high schools about lightning strikes, the reduction of their damages, and lightning protection. We created some teaching resources and would like to share our teaching experiences.
2022-10-26T11:05:58+02:00Exploring stratification effects in stable Ekman boundary layers using a stochastic one-dimensional turbulence model
https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-19-117-2022
<b>Exploring stratification effects in stable Ekman boundary layers using a stochastic one-dimensional turbulence model</b><br>
Marten Klein and Heiko Schmidt<br>
Adv. Sci. Res., 19, 117–136, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-19-117-2022, 2022<br>
We study the flow in the lower atmosphere in response to a sudden surface cooling. Our numerical approach aims to resolve all relevant scales of the flow but only along a vertical column. Complex turbulent motions are modeled by simple random mappings. We show that the numerical model accurately captures some relevant features of near-surface turbulent winds and temperature fluctuations. The model offers new opportunities for atmospheric chemistry and polar boundary layer application cases.
2022-10-25T11:05:58+02:00Downscaled climate change scenarios for Central America
https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-19-105-2022
<b>Downscaled climate change scenarios for Central America</b><br>
Jorge Tamayo, Ernesto Rodriguez-Camino, Alfonso Hernanz, and Sara Covaleda<br>
Adv. Sci. Res., 19, 105–115, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-19-105-2022, 2022<br>
There has been developed for Central America downscaled climate change scenarios using the same methodology, that allows a joint analysis for the whole region. The high number of simulations improves the situation prior to the start of the action, where each country had a limited number of projections that differed in terms of background information, methodology and resolution. A web based viewer allows consultations and download on 37 different climatic variables and derived indices.
2022-10-10T11:05:58+02:00Requirements for the use of impact-based forecasts and warnings by road maintenance services in Germany
https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-19-97-2022
<b>Requirements for the use of impact-based forecasts and warnings by road maintenance services in Germany</b><br>
Jasmina Schmidt, Nikola Tietze, Lars Gerhold, and Thomas Kox<br>
Adv. Sci. Res., 19, 97–103, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-19-97-2022, 2022<br>
The interdisciplinary research project WEXICOM funded by the German weather service (DWD) conducted focus group discussions and semi-structured expert interviews with members of road maintenance services in Germany. This paper focuses on the needs and demands practitioners of road maintenance services have in regard to a prospective introduction of impact-based forecasts and warnings and how weather forecasts are used at the moment.
2022-09-02T11:05:58+02:00