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Advances in Science and Research Contributions in Applied Meteorology and Climatology

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Adv. Sci. Res., 15, 39-44, 2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
27 Apr 2018
Short-range solar radiation forecasts over Sweden
Tomas Landelius, Magnus Lindskog, Heiner Körnich, and Sandra Andersson SMHI, Folkborgsvägen 17, 601 76 Norrköping, Sweden
Abstract. In this article the performance for short-range solar radiation forecasts by the global deterministic and ensemble models from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is compared with an ensemble of the regional mesoscale model HARMONIE-AROME used by the national meteorological services in Sweden, Norway and Finland. Note however that only the control members and the ensemble means are included in the comparison. The models resolution differs considerably with 18 km for the ECMWF ensemble, 9 km for the ECMWF deterministic model, and 2.5 km for the HARMONIE-AROME ensemble.

The models share the same radiation code. It turns out that they all underestimate systematically the Direct Normal Irradiance (DNI) for clear-sky conditions. Except for this shortcoming, the HARMONIE-AROME ensemble model shows the best agreement with the distribution of observed Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) and DNI values. During mid-day the HARMONIE-AROME ensemble mean performs best. The control member of the HARMONIE-AROME ensemble also scores better than the global deterministic ECMWF model. This is an interesting result since mesoscale models have so far not shown good results when compared to the ECMWF models.

Three days with clear, mixed and cloudy skies are used to illustrate the possible added value of a probabilistic forecast. It is shown that in these cases the mesoscale ensemble could provide decision support to a grid operator in terms of forecasts of both the amount of solar power and its probabilities.
Citation: Landelius, T., Lindskog, M., Körnich, H., and Andersson, S.: Short-range solar radiation forecasts over Sweden, Adv. Sci. Res., 15, 39-44,, 2018.

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During recent years the strong decrease in the prices of solar panels has lead to an increasing...