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Advances in Science and Research Contributions in Applied Meteorology and Climatology
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Volume 15 | Copyright
Adv. Sci. Res., 15, 213-216, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-15-213-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

  27 Aug 2018

27 Aug 2018

An explicit method of mesoscale convective storm prediction for the central region of Russia

Inna M. Gubenko1,2, Maria M. Kurbatova1,2, and Konstantin G. Rubinstein1,2 Inna M. Gubenko et al.
  • 1Department of Long-term Weather Forecasting, Hydrometeorological Research Center of Russia, Moscow, 123242, Russia
  • 2Department of Applied Mathematical Modelling, Nuclear Safety Institute of RAS, Moscow, 115191, Russia

Abstract. This work presents simulation results of the storm observed on the 13–14 July 2016 over the Central region of Russia. The Cumulonimbus cloud (Cb) electrification model coupled with the numerical weather prediction model WRF-ARW were used for this study. The prognostic values of the electric field magnitude were compared with observations. Forecast scores were obtained. The results show that the proposed approach of explicit modelling of the electric field is applicable to short-term forecasting of intense convection and passage tracking of storms. Obtaining varying values of the electric field could help to identify the diversity of hazardous weather phenomena associated with convection.

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