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Advances in Science and Research The open-access proceedings of the European Meteorological Society (EMS)

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Adv. Sci. Res., 14, 89-93, 2017
https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-14-89-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
 
24 Apr 2017
Long-range forecasts for the energy market – a case study
Otto Hyvärinen, Antti Mäkelä, Matti Kämäräinen, and Hilppa Gregow Finnish Meteorological Institute, Erik Palménin aukio 1, P.O. Box 503, 00101 Helsinki, Finland
Abstract. We examined the feasibility of long-range forecasts of temperature for needs of the energy sector in Helsinki, Finland. The work was done jointly by Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI) and Helen Ltd, the main Helsinki metropolitan area energy provider, and especially provider of district heating and cooling. Because temperatures govern the need of heating and cooling and, therefore, the energy demand, better long-range forecasts of temperature would be highly useful for Helen Ltd. Heating degree day (HDD) is a parameter that indicates the demand of energy to heat a building. We examined the forecasted monthly HDD values for Helsinki using UK Met Office seasonal forecasts with the lead time up to two months. The long-range forecasts of monthly HDD showed some skill in Helsinki in winter 2015–2016, especially if the very cold January is excluded.

Citation: Hyvärinen, O., Mäkelä, A., Kämäräinen, M., and Gregow, H.: Long-range forecasts for the energy market – a case study, Adv. Sci. Res., 14, 89-93, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-14-89-2017, 2017.
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Finnish Meteorological Institute and Helen Ltd examined the feasibility of long-range forecasts (longer than two weeks) of temperature for needs of the energy sector in Helsinki, Finland. In this study, we examined the quality of Heating degree day (HDD) forecasts. As the forecasts we used UK Met Office seasonal forecasts. The long-range forecasts of monthly HDD showed some skill in Helsinki in winter 2015–2016, up to two months, especially if the very cold January is excluded.
Finnish Meteorological Institute and Helen Ltd examined the feasibility of long-range forecasts...
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