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Advances in Science and Research The open-access proceedings of the European Meteorological Society (EMS)

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Adv. Sci. Res., 14, 227-230, 2017
https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-14-227-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
 
11 Jul 2017
Wind power application research on the fusion of the determination and ensemble prediction
Shi Lan, Xu Lina, and Hao Yuzhu Inner Mongolia Meteorological Service Center, Hohhot 010051, China
Abstract. The fused product of wind speed for the wind farm is designed through the use of wind speed products of ensemble prediction from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and professional numerical model products on wind power based on Mesoscale Model5 (MM5) and Beijing Rapid Update Cycle (BJ-RUC), which are suitable for short-term wind power forecasting and electric dispatch. The single-valued forecast is formed by calculating the different ensemble statistics of the Bayesian probabilistic forecasting representing the uncertainty of ECMWF ensemble prediction. Using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to improve the time resolution of the single-valued forecast, and based on the Bayesian model averaging (BMA) and the deterministic numerical model prediction, the optimal wind speed forecasting curve and the confidence interval are provided. The result shows that the fusion forecast has made obvious improvement to the accuracy relative to the existing numerical forecasting products. Compared with the 0–24 h existing deterministic forecast in the validation period, the mean absolute error (MAE) is decreased by 24.3 % and the correlation coefficient (R) is increased by 12.5 %. In comparison with the ECMWF ensemble forecast, the MAE is reduced by 11.7 %, and R is increased 14.5 %. Additionally, MAE did not increase with the prolongation of the forecast ahead.

Citation: Lan, S., Lina, X., and Yuzhu, H.: Wind power application research on the fusion of the determination and ensemble prediction, Adv. Sci. Res., 14, 227-230, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-14-227-2017, 2017.
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The fused product of wind speed for the wind farm is designed through using wind speed products of ensemble prediction from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and professional numerical model products on wind power based on Mesoscale Model5 and Beijing Rapid Update Cycle, which is suitable for short-term wind power forecasting and electric dispatch. The result shows that the fusion forecast has made obvious improvement on the accuracy relative to the numerical forecasting.
The fused product of wind speed for the wind farm is designed through using wind speed products...
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