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Advances in Science and Research The open-access proceedings of the European Meteorological Society (EMS)

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Adv. Sci. Res., 14, 123-129, 2017
https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-14-123-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
 
08 May 2017
Multimodel probabilistic prediction of 2 m-temperature anomalies on the monthly timescale
Alfonso Ferrone et al.

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Short summary
The ensemble reforecasts of the CNR-ISAC and ECMWF forecasting systems, both participating to the S2S project, have been combined in a multimodel ensemble. Tercile probability predictions of wintertime 2 m temperature produced through logistic regression outperform the probability estimation based on the direct count of ensemble members, in terms of RPSS and reliability diagrams. Also, it is argued that the logistic regression would not yield further improvements if a larger dataset were used.
The ensemble reforecasts of the CNR-ISAC and ECMWF forecasting systems, both participating to...
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