Advances in Science and Research www.adv-sci-res.net 1992-0628 1992-0636 3 8th EMS Annual Meeting and 7th European Conference on Applied Climatology 2008 2009 10.5194/asr-3-39-2009 http://www.adv-sci-res.net/3/39/2009/ http://www.adv-sci-res.net/3/39/2009/asr-3-39-2009.html http://www.adv-sci-res.net/3/39/2009/asr-3-39-2009.pdf 39 43 2009-04-15 Probabilistic forecasts of winter thunderstorms around Amsterdam Airport Schiphol A. B. A. Slangen M. J. Schmeits schmeits@knmi.nl Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, The Netherlands now at: Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht (IMAU), Utrecht, The Netherlands The development and verification of a probabilistic forecast system for winter thunderstorms around Amsterdam Airport Schiphol is described. We have used Model Output Statistics (MOS) to develop the probabilistic forecast equations. The MOS system consists of 32 logistic regression equations, i.e. for two forecast periods (0–6 h and 6–12 h), four 90×80 km² regions around Amsterdam Airport Schiphol, and four 6-h time periods. For the predictand quality-controlled Surveillance et Alerte Foudre par Interférométrie Radioélectrique (SAFIR) total lightning data were used. The potential predictors were calculated from postprocessed output of two numerical weather prediction (NWP) models – i.e. the High-Resolution Limited-Area Model (HIRLAM) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model – and from an ensemble of advected lightning and radar data (0–6 h projections only). The predictors that are selected most often are the HIRLAM Boyden index, the square root of the ECMWF 3-h and 6-h convective precipitation sum, the HIRLAM convective available potential energy (CAPE) and two radar advection predictors. An objective verification was done, from which it can be concluded that the MOS system is skilful. The forecast system runs at the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) on an experimental basis, with the primary objective to warn aircraft pilots for potential aircraft induced lightning (AIL) risk during winter. Hughes, K K.: Development of MOS thunderstorm and severe thunderstorm forecast equations with multiple data sources., Preprints, 18th Conf. on Weather Analysis and Forecasting, Fort Lauderdale, FL, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 191–195, 2001. Kitagawa, N. and Michimoto, K.: Meteorological and electrical aspects of winter thunderclouds, J. Geophys. Res., 99, 10713–10721, 1994. Schmeits, M J., Kok, C J., Vogelezang, D. H P., and van Westrhenen, R M.: Probabilistic forecasts of (severe) thunderstorms for the purpose of issuing a weather alarm in the Netherlands, Wea. Forecasting, 23, 1253–1267, 2008. Slangen, A.: Probabilistic forecasts of winter thunderstorms around Schiphol Airport using model output statistics, KNMI Technical report TR-300, De Bilt, The Netherlands, 53 pp. (available online at http://www.knmi.nl/publications/fulltexts/tr300.pdf), 2008. Uman, M A. and Rakov, V A.: The interaction of lightning with airborne vehicles, Progress in Aerospace Sciences, 39, 61–81, 2003. Wilks, D S.: Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences, 2nd Ed., Academic Press, 627 pp., 2006.