Advances in Science and Research www.adv-sci-res.net 1992-0628 1992-0636 3 8th EMS Annual Meeting and 7th European Conference on Applied Climatology 2008 2009 10.5194/asr-3-133-2009 http://www.adv-sci-res.net/3/133/2009/ http://www.adv-sci-res.net/3/133/2009/asr-3-133-2009.html http://www.adv-sci-res.net/3/133/2009/asr-3-133-2009.pdf 133 135 2009-10-21 Adaptation of vulnerable regional agricultural systems in Europe to climate change – results from the ADAGIO project J. Eitzinger josef.eitzinger@boku.ac.at G. Kubu V. Alexandrov A. Utset D. T. Mihailovic B. Lalic M. Trnka Z. Zalud D. Semeradova D. Ventrella D. P. Anastasiou M. Medany S. Altaher J. Olejnik J. Lesny N. Nemeshko M. Nikolaev C. Simota G. Cojocaru Institute of Meteorology, University of Natural Resources and Applied Life Sciences (BOKU), Vienna, Austria National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology, Sofia, Bulgaria Agrarian Technological Institute of Castilla and Leon (ITACYL), Valladolid, Spain Center for Meteorology and Environmental Predictions (CMEP), Novi Sad, Serbia Mendel University of Agriculture and Forestry in Brno (MZLU), Czech Republic Instituto Sperimentale Agronomico (CRA-ISA), Italy Inst. of Env. Research and Sustainable Development (IESRD-NOA), Greece Central Laboratory for Agricultural Climate (CLAC), Egypt August Cieszkowski Agriculture University of Poznan (ACAUP), Poland State Hydrological Institute (SHI), St. Petersburg, Russia Agrophysical Research Institute (ARI), St. Petersburg, Russia TIAMASG Foundation, Romania During 2007-2009 the ADAGIO project (<a href="http://www.adagio-eu.org" target="_blank">http://www.adagio-eu.org</a>) is carried out to evaluate regional adaptation options in agriculture in most vulnerable European regions (mediterranean, central and eastern European regions). In this context a bottom-up approach is used beside the top-down approach of using scientific studies, involving regional experts and farmers in the evaluation of potential regional vulnerabilities and adaptation options. Preliminary results of the regional studies and gathered feedback from experts and farmers show in general that (increasing) drought and heat are the main factors having impact on agricultural vulnerability not only in the Mediterranean region, but also in the Central and southern Eastern European regions. Another important aspect is that the increasing risk of pest and diseases may play a more important role for agricultural vulnerability than assumed before, however, till now this field is only rarely investigated in Europe. Although dominating risks such as increasing drought and heat are similar in most regions, the vulnerabilities in the different regions are very much influenced by characteristics of the dominating agroecosystems and prevailing socio-economic conditions. This will be even be more significant for potential adaptation measures at the different levels, which have to reflect the regional conditions. European Environment Agency (EEA): Climate change: the cost of inaction and the cost of adaptation, EEA Technical report No 13/2007, EEA, Copenhague, 72~pp., 2007. Intergovernmental panel on Climate Change (IPCC): Climate Change 2007 – The Physical Science Basis Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC, 2007a. Intergovernmental panel on Climate Change (IPCC): Climate Change 2007 – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC, 2007b. Mearns, L. O., Rosenzweig, C., and Goldberg, R.: Mean and variance change in climate scenarios: methods, agricultural applications, and measures of uncertainty, Clim. Change, 35, 367–396, 1997. Meehl, G. A. and Tebaldi, C.: More intense, more frequent, and longer lasting heatwaves in the 21st Century, Science, 305, 994–997, 2004. Orlandini, S., Nejedlik, P., Eitzinger, J., Alexandrov, V., Toulios, L., Calanca, P., Trnka, M., and Olesen, J. E.: Impacts of climate change and variability on European agriculture: results of inventory analysis in COST 734 countries, Ann. N. Y. Acad. Sci., 1146(4), 338–353, 2008. Rowell, D. P. and Jones, R.: The causes and uncertainty of future summer drying over Europe, Clim. Dynam., 27(2–3), 281–299, 2005.