Advances in Science and Research
www.adv-sci-res.net
1992-0628
1992-0636
3
8th EMS Annual Meeting and 7th European Conference on Applied Climatology 2008
2009
10.5194/asr-3-127-2009
http://www.adv-sci-res.net/3/127/2009/
http://www.adv-sci-res.net/3/127/2009/asr-3-127-2009.html
http://www.adv-sci-res.net/3/127/2009/asr-3-127-2009.pdf
127
131
2009-10-13
Average rate of phenological changes in Poland according to climatic changes – evaluation and mapping
K. Jatczak
katarzyna.jatczak@imgw.pl
J. Walawender
Meteorology Centre, Institute of Meteorology and Water Management, Warsaw, Poland
Faculty of Biology, University of Warsaw, Poland
Satellite Remote Sensing Centre, Institute of Meteorology and Water Management, Poland
Department of Climatology, Institute of Geography and Spatial Management, Jagiellonian University, Krakow, Poland
The main objective of this study was evaluation and mapping of an
average rate of phenological changes for example special plant s indicators
as a result of climatic changes in Poland.
<br><br>
Multi-year analysis clearly showed
a tendency to earlier onset of spring events. The average advance of
flowering/leafing was −1.4 days/decade and −2.4 days/1°C. Whereas the
response of autumn phenophases was ambiguous. Phenological and climate data
come from archives of the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management.
<br><br>
Analysis covered the period of 1951–1992. The relation between temperature
and date of phenophases was described with Pearson's linear regression model.
Statistical significance of the model parameters was checked with Student's
t-test at the following levels: 0.05, 0.01, and 0.001.
<br><br>
The results were
visualised on maps. ArcGIS 9.2 Geostatistical Analyst was used to examine the
data and create prediction maps. Numerous tests were performed in order to
find an appropriate method of spatial interpolation. Finally kriging was
chosen as the most precise.
ArcGIS 9,Using ArcGIS Geostatistical Analyst (user manual): http://dusk2.geo.orst.edu/gis/geostat_analyst.pdf, last access: 23 September 2008.
Bissolli, P., Dittmann, E., Remisova, V., et al.: 50-year time series of phenological phases in Germany and Slovakia: a statistical comparison, Meteorol. Z., 14, 2, 173–182, 2005.
Dobesch, H., Tveito, O. E., and Bessemoulin, P.: Final Report Project no. 5, in the framework of the climatological projects in the application area of ECSN, `Geographic Information Systems in Climatological Application', Oslo-Vienna, 2001.
Hunter, D. R. and Meentenmeyer, R. K.: Climatologically aided mapping of daily precipitation and temperature, J. Appl. Meteorol., 44, 1501–1510, 2005.
Meier U.: Growth Stages of Plants, Blackwell Wissenschafts-Verlag, Berlin, Wien, 1997.
Menzel, A., Sparks, T., Estrella, N., et al.: European phenological response to climate change matches the warming pattern, Global Change Biol., 12, 1969–1976, 2006.
Olea, R. A.: Geostatistics for Engineers and Earth Scientists, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Boston, Dordrecht, London, 1999.
Schröder, W., Schmidt, G., and Hasenclever, J.: Geostatistical analysis of data on air temperature and plant phenology from Badden-Württenberg (Germany) as a basis for regional scaled models of climate change, Environmental Monitoring and Assesment, 120, 27–43, 2006.
Tomaszewska, T. and Rutkowski, Z.: Fenologiczne pory roku i ich zmienno\'sć w wieloleciu 1951–1990", Materialy Badawcze IMGW 28, 1999.
Zimny, H.: Wybrane zagadnienia z ekologii, SGGW, Warszawa, 1997.