Articles | Volume 14
https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-14-115-2017
https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-14-115-2017
05 May 2017
 | 05 May 2017

Subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) forecasts with CNRM-CM: a case study on the July 2015 West-European heat wave

Constantin Ardilouze, Lauriane Batté, and Michel Déqué

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Cited articles

Barbier, J., Guichard, F., Bouniol, D., Couvreux, F., and Roehrig, R.: Spring sahelian heat waves: detection, characteristics and historical trend, J. Climate, submitted, 2017.
Batté, L. and Déqué, M.: Randomly correcting model errors in the ARPEGE-Climate v6.1 component of CNRM-CM: applications for seasonal forecasts, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2055–2076, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2055-2016, 2016.
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Brunet, G., Shapiro, M., Hoskins, B., Moncrieff, M., Dole, R., Kiladis, G. N., Kirtman, B., Lorenc, A., Mills, B., Morss, R., Polavarapu, S., Rogers, D., Schaake, J., and Shukla, J.: Collaboration of the weather and climate communities to advance subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 91, 1397–1406, 2010.
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Short summary
Was the July 2015 heat wave that struck Western Europe predictable more than 10 days ahead and to what extent? This article addresses the question by assessing forecasts from the CNRM-CM sub-seasonal forecast system. It is found that a warm anomaly was anticipated up to one month ahead despite the limited skill of the forecast system at such lead-time. The possible causes for this relative success are then discussed.