Articles | Volume 13
https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-13-69-2016
https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-13-69-2016
20 Apr 2016
 | 20 Apr 2016

Improvement of Solar and Wind forecasting in southern Italy through a multi-model approach: preliminary results

Elenio Avolio, Rosa Claudia Torcasio, Teresa Lo Feudo, Claudia Roberta Calidonna, Daniele Contini, and Stefano Federico

Abstract. The improvement of the Solar and Wind short-term forecasting represents a critical goal for the weather prediction community and is of great importance for a better estimation of power production from solar and wind farms.

In this work we analyze the performance of two deterministic models operational at ISAC-CNR for the prediction of short-wave irradiance and wind speed, at two experimental sites in southern Italy.

A post-processing technique, i.e the multi-model, is adopted to improve the performance of the two mesoscale models.

The results show that the multi-model approach produces a significant error reduction with respect to the forecast of each model. The error is reduced up to 20  % of the model errors, depending on the parameter and forecasting time.

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Short summary
The improvement of the Solar and Wind short-term forecasting represents a critical goal for the weather prediction community and is of great importance for a better estimation of power production from solar and wind farms. In this work we analyze the performance of two deterministic models operational at ISAC-CNR for the prediction of short-wave irradiance and wind speed, at two experimental sites in southern Italy.