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Advances in Science and Research The open-access proceedings of the European Meteorological Society (EMS)

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Adv. Sci. Res., 13, 69-73, 2016
http://www.adv-sci-res.net/13/69/2016/
doi:10.5194/asr-13-69-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed
under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
 
20 Apr 2016
Improvement of Solar and Wind forecasting in southern Italy through a multi-model approach: preliminary results
Elenio Avolio1, Rosa Claudia Torcasio1, Teresa Lo Feudo1, Claudia Roberta Calidonna1, Daniele Contini2, and Stefano Federico3 1Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate – Italian National Research Council (ISAC-CNR), Lamezia Terme, 88046, Italy
2Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate – Italian National Research Council (ISAC-CNR), Lecce, 73100, Italy
3Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate – Italian National Research Council (ISAC-CNR), Rome, 00133, Italy
Abstract. The improvement of the Solar and Wind short-term forecasting represents a critical goal for the weather prediction community and is of great importance for a better estimation of power production from solar and wind farms.

In this work we analyze the performance of two deterministic models operational at ISAC-CNR for the prediction of short-wave irradiance and wind speed, at two experimental sites in southern Italy.

A post-processing technique, i.e the multi-model, is adopted to improve the performance of the two mesoscale models.

The results show that the multi-model approach produces a significant error reduction with respect to the forecast of each model. The error is reduced up to 20  % of the model errors, depending on the parameter and forecasting time.


Citation: Avolio, E., Torcasio, R. C., Lo Feudo, T., Calidonna, C. R., Contini, D., and Federico, S.: Improvement of Solar and Wind forecasting in southern Italy through a multi-model approach: preliminary results, Adv. Sci. Res., 13, 69-73, doi:10.5194/asr-13-69-2016, 2016.
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The improvement of the Solar and Wind short-term forecasting represents a critical goal for the weather prediction community and is of great importance for a better estimation of power production from solar and wind farms. In this work we analyze the performance of two deterministic models operational at ISAC-CNR for the prediction of short-wave irradiance and wind speed, at two experimental sites in southern Italy.
The improvement of the Solar and Wind short-term forecasting represents a critical goal for the...
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